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A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Geoffrey Ducanes

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Xinhua He

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Rui Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Shiguo Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the economy of People's Republic of China. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general simple dynamic specification approach is adopted in order to ensure the best possible blend of a priori long-run theories with a posteriori identified short-run factors, as well as country-specific features. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2006. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 81, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0081
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 1997/049, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Xinhua He & Duo Qin, 2004. "Aggregate Investment in People’s Republic of China: Some Empirical Evidence," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 99-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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