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La flotación de 1957 y la estabilidad macroeconómica

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Abstract

La flotación del peso de 1957 fue la política que más contribuyó a la estabilidad externa dentro del primer programa de crédito contingente de Colombia con el FMI en 1957. En el artículo se especifica y estima un modelo de demanda para los componentes de la ecuación macroeconómica básica durante 1950-1965. En el modelo el control de importaciones se estima como una variable no observada. El modelo se utiliza para estudiar la evolución del balance comercial, la absorción y el producto por medio de ejercicios de descomposición de errores. Dentro de los resultados se encuentra que mientras que la apreciación de la tasa de cambio anterior a 1957 llevó al país a una crisis de pagos, la flotación de 1957 fue el elemento central del programa de estabilización con el FMI pues su efecto fue de lejos el más importante sobre la estabilidad externa dentro de la serie de políticas del programa de estabilización. El movimiento especulativo de capital y el crédito fueron los principales factores impulsores de la absorción, mientras que la flotación de la tasa de cambio tuvo un papel estabilizador sobre el ciclo económico. Los términos de intercambio no desempañaron un papel importante en la explicación del ciclo, a pesar de que comúnmente se les atribuye un papel importante. El control de importaciones ayudó estabilizar el balance comercial, pero una flotación de la tasa de cambio más prolongada habría logrado estabilizar el balance comercial sin racionamiento de las importaciones y sin moratoria de la deuda comercial.******The 1957 flotation of the peso was the policy that contributed most to external stability, among the policies in Colombia’s first stand-by agreement with the IMF. A model for the demand for each of the aggregates in the basic macroeconomic equation during 1950–1965 is specified and estimated. In the model, the imports control policy is estimated as an unobserved variable. The model is used to study the evolution of the trade balance, absorption and output in historical error decomposition exercises. Among the results we find that the appreciation of the exchange rate before 1957 led the country to a payments crisis, while the 1957 flotation was by far the more important policy among the policies in the stabilization program. Speculative capital movements and credit were the main propellers of absorption, while the flotation of the peso had a stabilizing effect on the economic cycle. The terms of trade did not have an important effect on the cycle, although the literature commonly attributes them a critical role. Import controls helped stabilize the trade balance, but a prolonged flotation of the peso would have helped stabilize the trade balance without import rationing or commercial debt arrears.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2016. "La flotación de 1957 y la estabilidad macroeconómica," Borradores de Economia 938, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:938
    DOI: 10.32468/be.938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    2. José Antonio Ocampo, 1989. "Ciclo Cafetero y comportamiento macroeconómico en Colombia, 1940 - 1987," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 19(3), pages 125-158, October.
    3. José Antonio Ocampo, 1989. "Ciclo cafetero y comportamiento macroeconómico en Colombia 1940 - 1987 (Continuación)," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 19(4), pages 147-183, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Acuerdo de crédito contingente; Programa de estabilización; Ajuste de la balanza de pagos; Enfoque absorción ******Stand-by agreement; Stabilization program; Balance of payments adjustment; Absorption approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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