IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/012699.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Huertas Campos
  • Eliana González Molano
  • Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo

Abstract

En este documento se analiza el mecanismo de formación de las expectativas de inflación en Colombia usando diferentes medidas de esta variable a uno y dos años. Los resultados indican que las expectativas se forman de manera adaptativa y racional. Hay evidencia que soporta la hipótesis de aprendizaje adaptativo. Las pruebas estadísticas sugieren que la meta de inflación ha ganado credibilidad y se puede considerar como una expectativa racional.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 12699, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:012699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_880.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & José Vicente Romero & José Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "Assessing inflationary pressures in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 129-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Noah Williams, 2010. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 237-262, February.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 366-375, 04-05.
    6. Ece Oral & Hülya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & S. Özge Tuncel, 2011. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(1), pages 5-28.
    7. Thomas Jonsson & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 79-94, February.
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    10. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    11. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    12. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    13. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    14. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2006. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 175-195, April.
    15. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    16. George W. Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
    17. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Martin Fukac, 2008. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning,and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 49.
    20. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    21. Weber, Anke, 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations, learning and European inflation dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    23. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    24. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk-Tuğer, 2010. "Inflation expectations in Turkey: learning to be rational," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(21), pages 2725-2742.
    25. González-Molano, Eliana Rocío & Jalil-Barney, Munir Andrés & Romero-Chamorro, José Vicente, 2011. "Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Chapters, in: López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.2, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 491-519, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    27. Fabia A de Carvalho & Mauricio S. Bugarin, 2006. "Inflation Expectations in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 101-145, January.
    28. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    29. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    30. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    31. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. John A. Carlson & Neven T. Valev, 2002. "A Disinflation Trade-Off: Speed Versus Final Destination," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 450-456, July.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    34. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romero, José Vicente & Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara, 2024. "Weather shocks and inflation expectations in semi-structural models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omokanmi, Olatunde Julius & Ibrahim, Ridwan Lanre & Ajide, Kazeem Bello & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic impacts of natural resources and environmental pollution on longevity in resource-dependent African countries: Does income level matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 08-11, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    3. Ajide, Kazeem & Ridwan, Ibrahim, 2018. "Energy consumption, environmental contaminants, and economic growth: The G8 experience," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 51, pages 58-83.
    4. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    5. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    6. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    7. Mendoza, Miguel Ángel, 2014. "Panorama preliminar de los subsidios y los impuestos a las gasolinas y diésel en los países de América Latina," Documentos de Proyectos 37431, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    9. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    10. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    11. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    13. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries," MPRA Paper 80776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jacobo Alberto Campo Robledo, 2012. "Impacto De Las Patentes Sobre El Crecimiento Económico: Un Modelo Panel Cointegrado [Impact of Patents on Economic Growth: A Cointegrated Panel Data Model]," Working Papers hal-00744361, HAL.
    15. Bilal Mehmood & Wasif Siddiqui, 2013. "What Causes What? Panel Cointegration Approach on Investment in Telecommunication and Economic Growth: Case of Asian Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(47), pages 3-16, March.
    16. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    17. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2011. "Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 533-554, October.
    18. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    19. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2014. "Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 125-136.
    20. Nguyen, Kim Hanh & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2019. "Renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and development stages: Some evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1049-1057.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aprendizaje adaptativo; encuestas; expectativas; inflación.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:012699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.