Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?
This paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional predictors such as the term spread, dividend yield, exchange rates and money growth. The study is applied to euro area financial asset prices and real economic growth, covering the period 1973 to 2006. The paper finds that the term spread is the best predictor of future growth in the period leading up to the introduction of Monetary Union. After 1999, however, sectoral stock prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980.
"Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-57, May.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luigi Guiso & Monica Paiella & Ignazio Visco, 2005. "Do capital gains affect consumption? Estimates of wealth effects from Italian householdsï¿½ behavior," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 555, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005. "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
- Kostas Tsatsaronis & Frank Smets, 1997.
"Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States,"
BIS Working Papers
49, Bank for International Settlements.
- Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Frank Browne & David Doran, 2005. "Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1801-1812.
- Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0294, European Central Bank.
- Monica Paiella, 2004.
"Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:2/rt/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fiona Farrelly)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.