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On the Forecastability of Agricultural Output

Author

Listed:
  • Foteini Kyriazi

    (Agricultural University of Athens)

  • Efthymios Xylangouras

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Theodoros Papadogonas

    (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens)

Abstract

"The disruption of supply chain due to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, render the prediction of agricultural output a determinant factor of economic life. We consider the predictability of agricultural output based on a set of explanatory variables, that include agricultural input, prices and consumer demand among others, for Greece and explore the usefulness of these variables compared to standard, univariate, forecasting methods. We evaluate the impact of using combined information in the form of principal components, and the use of averaging for producing accurate forecasts. Our results indicate that agricultural output is predictable and, moreover, we identify the factors that, for the case of Greece, lead to such predictability. Our outcomes can be used in a variety of ways, the least of which can be scenario analysis that might be very useful in real-world policy making."

Suggested Citation

  • Foteini Kyriazi & Efthymios Xylangouras & Theodoros Papadogonas, 2024. "On the Forecastability of Agricultural Output," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 16(4), pages 443-467, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ren:journl:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:443-467
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v16i4.5620
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Predictability; Principal Component Analysis; Explanatory Variables; Agricultural Output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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