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When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

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  • Zietz, Joachim
  • Traian, Anca

Abstract

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Zietz, Joachim & Traian, Anca, 2014. "When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 271-281.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:2:p:271-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.12.004
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    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
    3. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    4. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:314-327 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Case-Shiller housing price index; Forecasting; ARIMA; Switching models; State space/structural time series models;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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