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How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander N. Bogin

    () (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Stephen D. Bruestle

    () (Penn State Erie)

  • William M. Doerner

    () (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

We develop a theoretically-based statistical technique to identify a conservative lower bound for house prices. Leveraging a model based upon consumer and investor incentives, we are able to explain the depth of housing market downturns at both the national and state level over a variety of market environments. This approach performs well in several historical back tests and has strong out-of-sample predictive ability. When back-tested, our estimation approach does not understate house price declines in any state over the 1987 to 2001 housing cycle and only understates declines in three states during the most recent financial crisis. This latter result is particularly noteworthy given that the post-2001 estimates are performed out-of-sample. Our measure of a conservative lower bound is attractive because it (1) provides a leading indicator of the severity of future downturns and (2) allows trough estimates to dynamically adjust as markets conditions change. This estimation technique could prove particularly helpful in measuring the credit risk associated with portfolios of mortgage assets as part of evaluating static stress tests or designing dynamic stress tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2015. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:15-01
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-015-9538-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; trough; lower bound; trend; financial stress testing;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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