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House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Fraser

    (University of Aberdeen Business School)

  • Martin Hoesli

    (University of Geneva, HEC, Swiss Finance Institute and University of Aberdeen Business School)

  • Lynn Mc Alevey

    (University of Otago, Department of Finance and Quantitative Analysis)

Abstract

This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970-2005. We find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. These deviations are found to be substantially more pronounced than for New Zealand stocks. Contrary to the results that have been reported for many other countries, however, there is no evidence of a deviation in the latter part of the 1980s. Finally,we find that the current deviation of house prices from fundamentals is due to price dynamics rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn Mc Alevey, 2006. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-20, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0620
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    2. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2016. "Are house prices guided by fundamentals or speculative factors? An empirical inquiry for India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 47-64.
    4. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    6. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2011. "Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market 1960-2009," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    7. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Zheng, Xian & Wang, Hui, 2010. "A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1445-1454.
    8. Charalambos Pitros, 2014. "UK housing bubble case study analysis: The ‘‘behaviour’’ of UK housing bubbles and the ‘‘affordability’’ parameter," ERES eres2014_4, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Wang, Peijie & Brand, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to estimating value–income ratios with income growth and time-varying yields," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 182-187.
    10. Frank J. Fabozzi & Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "Detecting Bubbles in the US and UK Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 469-513, May.
    11. Eraslan, Sercan, 2016. "Safe-haven demand for housing in London," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 482-493.
    12. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    13. Hsiao-Jung Teng & Chin-Oh Chang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2017. "Housing bubble contagion from city centre to suburbs," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1463-1481, May.
    14. Jean-Louis Bago & Imad Rherrad & Koffi Akakpo & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2022. "An Empirical Investigation on Bubbles Contagion in Scandinavian Real Estate Markets," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, March.
    15. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    16. Squires, Graham & White, Iain, 2019. "Resilience and housing markets: Who is it really for?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 167-174.
    17. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    18. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    19. Bago, Jean-Louis & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Ouédraogo, Ernest & Dembélé, Alou, 2019. "Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 95685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    21. Mao-wei Hung & Leh-chyan So, 2012. "How Much Extra Premium Does a Loss-averse Owner-occupied Home Buyer Pay for His House?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 705-722, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real house prices; real disposable income; fundamentals; present value; time-varying risk; bubbles; New Zealand.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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