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Do Stock Market Investors Overreact?

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  • Gishan Dissanaike

Abstract

This paper investigates the evidence on the stock market overreaction hypothesis (ORH), which holds that, if stock prices systematically overshoot as a consequence of excessive investor optimism or pessimism, price reversals should be predictable from past price performance. The ORH stands in contradiction to the efficient markets hypothesis which is a cornerstone of financial economics. This study is unique in the overreaction literature because it is restricted to larger and better‐known listed companies, whose shares are more frequently traded. This restriction more or less eliminates two alternative explanations to the overreaction hypothesis: it minimises the influence of bid‐ask biases and infrequent trading, and reduces the possibility that reversals are primarily a small‐firm phenomenon. The paper also investigates a third alternative explanation, namely that time‐varying risk explains the reversal effect. The study employs unbiased methods of return computation and uses data from 1975 to 1991 for nearly 1,000 UK companies. Overall, the evidence appears to be consistent with the overreaction hypothesis, subject to certain qualifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Gishan Dissanaike, 1997. "Do Stock Market Investors Overreact?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 27-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:24:y:1997:i:1:p:27-50
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00093
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Reactions of the capital markets to the shocks before and during the global crisis," MPRA Paper 41540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2012.
    2. Inga Chira, 2014. "Bad news and bank performance during the 2008 financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(18), pages 1187-1198, September.
    3. Baytas, Ahmet & Cakici, Nusret, 1999. "Do markets overreact: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1121-1144, July.
    4. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    5. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Holmes, Phil & Ma, Xiaodong S., 2007. "Contrarian and momentum profitability revisited: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange 1964-2005," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 432-447, December.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short‐term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 839-867, June.
    7. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    8. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.
    9. Léo Parent, 2022. "The EWMA Heston model," Post-Print hal-04431111, HAL.
    10. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    11. Jeff Madura & Martina K. Bers, 2002. "The performance persistence of foreign closed‐end funds," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 263-285.
    12. Dimitris Kenourgios & Nikolaos Pavlidis, 2005. "Individual Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Evidence for Overreaction in the UK Stock Market," Finance 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gaunt, Clive, 2000. "Overreaction in the Australian equity market: 1974-1997," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 375-398, July.
    14. Hisham Farag, 2015. "Long-term Overreaction, Regulatory Policies and Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence from Egypt," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 112-139, August.
    15. Stuart Locke & Kartick Gupta, 2009. "Applicability of Contrarian Strategy in the Bombay Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 165-189, May.
    16. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chin-Yu Wang & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2017. "Housing price–volume correlations and boom–bust cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1423-1450, June.
    17. Jalal Shah & Attaullah Shah, 2018. "Contrarian and Momentum Investment Strategies in Pakistan Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(3), pages 253-282.
    18. Hon, Mark T. & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "Momentum in the UK stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-70, February.
    19. Lasfer, M. Ameziane & Melnik, Arie & Thomas, Dylan C., 2003. "Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1959-1977, October.
    20. Alves, Paulo & Carvalho, Luís, 2020. "Recent evidence on international stock market’s overreaction," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    21. Hisham Farag, 2014. "Investor overreaction and unobservable portfolios: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1313-1322, October.
    22. Philip Gray & Mark Whittaker, 2003. "Future Long‐Horizon Performance Measurement Conditional on Past Survival," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 4(1‐2), pages 29-48, March.
    23. Louie Rivers & Joseph Arvai & Paul Slovic, 2010. "Beyond a Simple Case of Black and White: Searching for the White Male Effect in the African‐American Community," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77, January.
    24. Gishan Dissanaike & Kim†Hwa Lim, 2010. "The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(2), pages 229-255, March.
    25. Metin Tetik & Ercan ?zen, 2016. "Overreaction Hypothesis and Reaction of Borsa Istanbul to Dow-Jones," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 412-423, December.

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