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Is Stock Market Overreaction Persistent Over Time?

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  • Carl R. Chen
  • David A. Sauer

Abstract

This paper examines the stability and persistence of the market overreaction hypothesis as posited by DeBondt and Thaler (1985 and 1987), and reinforced by Chopra, Lakonishok, and Ritter (1992). Using monthly CRSP data for the period 1926 through 1992, we find that returns obtained from a contrarian investment strategy are not time‐stationary. Specifically, there is no winner‐loser portfolio relationship during the post‐war period of 1940_50s. The relationship resumes during the pre‐energy‐crisis subperiod, but weakens again during the post‐energy‐crisis subperiod. The effectiveness of trading based upon the overreaction hypothesis is, therefore, suspect.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl R. Chen & David A. Sauer, 1997. "Is Stock Market Overreaction Persistent Over Time?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 51-66, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:24:y:1997:i:1:p:51-66
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00094
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Reactions of the capital markets to the shocks before and during the global crisis," MPRA Paper 41540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2012.
    2. Rezvanian Rasoul & Klaczynska Ewelina & Krysiak Zbigniew, 2015. "Equity Market Reaction to Sharp Price Changes: Evidence from Poland," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 169-190, July.
    3. Baytas, Ahmet & Cakici, Nusret, 1999. "Do markets overreact: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1121-1144, July.
    4. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    5. J.Barry Lin & Joseph I. Onochie & Avner S. Wolf, 1999. "Weekday variations in short‐term contrarian profits in futures markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 139-148, September.
    6. Lakatos, Máté, 2016. "A befektetői túlreagálás empirikus vizsgálata a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén [An empirical test for investor over-reaction on the Budapest stock exchange]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 762-786.
    7. Boussaidi, Ramzi & AlSaggaf, Majid Ibrahim, 2022. "Contrarian profits and representativeness heuristic in the MENA stock markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    9. Gaunt, Clive, 2000. "Overreaction in the Australian equity market: 1974-1997," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 375-398, July.
    10. Mark Schaub, 2006. "Investor overreaction to going concern audit opinion announcements," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1163-1170.
    11. Stuart Locke & Kartick Gupta, 2009. "Applicability of Contrarian Strategy in the Bombay Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 165-189, May.
    12. Lin, J. Barry & Onochie, Joseph I. & Wolf, Avner S., 1999. "Weekday variations in short-term contrarian profits in futures markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 139-148.
    13. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai, 2019. "The Valuation of Deposit Insurance Premiums Based on a Specific Bank's Official Default Probability," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(3-4), pages 141-167, September.
    14. George Diacogiannis & Nikolaos Patsalis & Nickolaos Tsangarakis & Emanuel Tsiritakis, 2005. "Price limits and overreaction in the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 53-61.
    15. Alves, Paulo & Carvalho, Luís, 2020. "Recent evidence on international stock market’s overreaction," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Philip Gray & Mark Whittaker, 2003. "Future Long‐Horizon Performance Measurement Conditional on Past Survival," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 4(1‐2), pages 29-48, March.

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