Intrinsic bubbles: the case of stock prices: a comment
Some recent empirical evidence suggests that stock prices are not properly modelled as the present discounted value of expected dividends and that empirical models incorporating nonlinear bubble components better fit the data. In this paper we show that the nonlinearity in the relationship between prices and dividends may arise from how managers choose dividend payout. In particular, we propose a model of managed dividends which can explain observed long-term trends in stock prices. This model of managed dividends is shown to be observationally equivalent to the popular intrinsic bubbles model.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Publication status:||Published in American Economic Review, December 1999, v. 89 no. 5, pp. 1372-1376|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 834, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834|
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/print_publication_order_form.cfm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001.
"An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management,"
Journal of Financial Services Research,
Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
- Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 2000. "An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management," Working Paper Series WP-00-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 1996. "Time-Series Implications of Aggregate Dividend Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 589-618.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1994. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," IDEI Working Papers 34, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Tirole, Jean & Fudenberg, Drew, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Scholarly Articles 3160494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
- Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-140, Summer.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
- Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1987. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, January.
- Terry A. Marsh and Robert C. Merton., 1986. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 163, University of California at Berkeley.
- Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
- Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Watts, Ross, 1973. "The Information Content of Dividends," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 191-211, April.
- Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
- Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-1160, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)