Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity
House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zemcik, Petr & Mikhed, Vyacheslav, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008.
"Arbitrage in Housing Markets,"
Working Paper Series
rwp08-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Leung, 2007.
"Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
- Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Departmental Working Papers _175, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
- Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
- Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008.
"Housing supply and housing bubbles,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
- Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," Scholarly Articles 2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007.
"Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
- Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
- Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
- Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
- Sing, Tien-Foo & Tsai, I-Chun & Chen, Ming-Chi, 2006. "Price dynamics in public and private housing markets in Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-320, December.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:256-266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.