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Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

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  • Gao, Andre
  • Lin, Zhenguo
  • Na, Carrie Fangzhou

Abstract

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Andre & Lin, Zhenguo & Na, Carrie Fangzhou, 2009. "Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 256-266, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:256-266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
    2. Viguie, V. & Hallegatte, S., 2014. "Urban infrastructure investment and rent-capture potentials," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7067, The World Bank.
    3. Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Niu, G., 2014. "Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends," Other publications TiSEM b9f72836-d8ad-478b-adca-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01136199 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    8. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    9. Yuming Li & Laura Yue Liu, 2014. "Wealth, Labor Income and House Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 394-413.
    10. Li, Yuming, 2015. "The asymmetric house price dynamics: Evidence from the California market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Asymmetric pass-through effects from monetary policy to housing prices in South Africa," MPRA Paper 70258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:64-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Petros Sivitanides, 2015. "Macroeconomic Influences on Cyprus House Prices: 2006Q1- 2014Q2," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 3-22, June.
    14. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    15. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    16. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Ferando Perez de Gracia, 2014. "Persistence, Mean Reversion and Non-Linearities in US Housing Prices Over 1830-2013," Working Papers 201450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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