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Assessing The Future Migration Potential Of The Eu Candidate Countries

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  • Assoc. Prof. Ph.D Vesna Bucevska

    (University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius”, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

In the realm of the EU accession, the EU candidate countries and EU are facing a number of challenges raised by the potential migration from these countries to EU. In this paper we try to answer the question if the fear of large migration pressure from these countries to EU is justified by estimating the migration potential of Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey to Germany, as the most dominant EU receiving country of immigrants in the period 1997-2007. The results from the extended gravity model revealed that the ratio between unemployment rate in the country of origin and the country of destination as well as the social network effects are the main economic determinants of migration from EU candidate countries to Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Assoc. Prof. Ph.D Vesna Bucevska, 2010. "Assessing The Future Migration Potential Of The Eu Candidate Countries," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(14), pages 131-142, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:rteyej:v:1:y:2010:i:14:p:131-142
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; gravity model; pooled data; EU candidate countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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