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Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model

Author

Listed:
  • C. MARBOT

    (Insee)

  • D. ROY

    (Insee)

Abstract

Confronted with an ageing population, developed countries are facing the challenge of providing care to a growing number of disabled elderly people. Knowing how many they will be and, given the current pensions and welfare systems, how much it will cost to care for them is crucial to policymakers. The INSEE pensions microsimulation tool (called Destinie) was extended in 2011 to elderly disability, in preparation for a reform of the funding of elderly disability in France. Microsimulation at the individual level allows to take into account expected changes in the distribution of variables that influence the process under study. It also allows to simulate allowances based on complex, non-linear scales that require calculation at the individual level. This document describes the implementation method and the results of the forecasts. First, on the characteristics of the disabled elderly and presence of caregivers. Then, several alternative scenarios are studied and yield a range of estimates of the future cost of the allowance for elderly disability, ranging from 0.54% of GDP in the most optimistic scenario to 0.71% of GDP in the most pessimistic one.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Marbot & D. Roy, 2012. "Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2012-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:g2012-10
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p06zr5cw/f1.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2012-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duée, Michel & Rebillard, Cyril & Pennec, Sophie, 2005. "Les personnes dépendantes en France : Evolution et prise en charge [Old-age disability in France: Long-term evolution, private caregiving and public expenditure]," MPRA Paper 69877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. M. Duée & C. Rebillard, 2004. "Old age disability in France: a long run projection," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2004-02, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microsimulation; forecasts; elderly disability; APA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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