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Qui prendra en charge les Européens âgés dépendants en 2030 ?

  • Joëlle Gaymu
  • Peter Ekamper
  • Gijs Beets

This article presents demographic projections of the living arrangements of older adults up to 2030 in nine European countries. They are based on country data collected as part of the Felicie project. The aim is to describe how changes in the sociodemographic characteristics of older people (marital situation, health status, existence of surviving children) will affect their living arrangements and thereby modify the form and intensity of their care needs. The results show that over the next 25 years, whatever the overall health trends, the supply of potential family carers, i.e. partners and offspring, will increase and that populations with the greatest need of professional assistance ? persons living alone with no available family members or those liable to enter an institution ? will grow more slowly than the dependent population in general. However, the ageing of this population, the growing number of elderly men with a dependent spouse and the greater longevity of couples in which both members have disabilities, all point to rapid growth in demand for professional assistance in years to come. These results indicate that policies for managing dependence will need to focus on support for family carers.

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Article provided by Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) in its journal Population.

Volume (Year): 62 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 789-822

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Handle: RePEc:cai:popine:popu_704_0789
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-population.htm

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  1. Kathleen Mcgarry & Robert Schoeni, 2000. "Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows’ independence in the twentieth century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 221-236, May.
  2. Iacovou, Maria, 2000. "Health, wealth and progeny: explaining the living arrangements of older European women," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Robert Michael & Victor Fuchs & Sharon Scott, 1980. "changes in the propensity to live alone: 1950–1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(1), pages 39-56, February.
  4. Spieß, Christa Katharina & Schneider, A. Ulrike, 2003. "Interactions between care-giving and paid work hours among European midlife women, 1994 to 1996," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 41-68.
  5. Aline Désesquelles & Nicolas Brouard, 2003. "Le réseau familial des personnes âgées de 60 ans ou plus vivant à domicile ou en institution," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 58(2), pages 201-227.
  6. Susan Ettner, 1995. "The impact of “parent care” on female labor supply decisions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(1), pages 63-80, February.
  7. Duée, Michel & Rebillard, Cyril & Pennec, Sophie, 2005. "Les personnes dépendantes en France : Evolution et prise en charge
    [Old-age disability in France: Long-term evolution, private caregiving and public expenditure]
    ," MPRA Paper 69877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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