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A Time Series Model for the Romanian Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Eleftherios Thalassinos
  • Diana-Mihaela Pociovalisteanu

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of the Romanian stock market using daily data for the period 1997-2007. During this period the European Union finalized many of its operational issues and EMU was put into effect. Additionally globalization brought increased attention to stock markets throughout the world, while the free trade and the technological financial innovations have changed the world stock market considerably. To test the impact in the Romanian stock market from these developments a number of different time series models are proposed in an attempt to clarify whether or not the Romanian stock market has been adjusted accordingly and to forecast the series. The proposed model is an ARIMA (p,d,q) process fitting the data very well. The results indicate that the Romanian stock market went through a significant structural change during the study period.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleftherios Thalassinos & Diana-Mihaela Pociovalisteanu, 2007. "A Time Series Model for the Romanian Stock Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 57-72.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:x:y:2007:i:3-4:p:57-72
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    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/07_34_p6.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    2. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    3. Corhay, A. & Tourani Rad, A. & Urbain, J. -P., 1993. "Common stochastic trends in European stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 385-390.
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    3. Eleftherios J. Thalassinos & Evagelos D. Politis, 2011. "International Stock Markets: A Co-integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 113-130.
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    8. Mike P. Hanias & Lykourgos Magafas, 2013. "Predicting the Production of Total Industry in Greece with Chaos Theory and Neural Networks," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 59-67.
    9. Elena Hlaciuc & Ionel Bostan & Veronica Grosu & Marian Socoliuc & Anisoara Niculina Apetri, 2013. "The Implications of the Accounting Harmonization Process on EU Countries: Α Case Study of Greece and Romania," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 93-102.
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    20. Antonios Adamopoulos, 2013. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Revised Empirical Study for Ireland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 25-33.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time series methodology; forecasting stock markets; stationarity tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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