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A Model of Global Beverage Markets

Author

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  • Wittwer, Glyn
  • Anderson, Kym

Abstract

This article describes a new empirical model of the world's markets for alcoholic beverages and, to illustrate its usefulness, reports results from projections of those markets from 2016–2018 to 2025 under various scenarios. It not only revises and updates a model of the world's wine markets (Wittwer, Berger, and Anderson, 2003), but also adds beer and spirits so as to capture the substitutability of those beverages among consumers. The model has some of the features of an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model, with international trade linking the markets of its 44 countries and seven residual regions. It is used to simulate prospects for these markets by 2025 (business-as-usual), which points to Asia's rise. Then two alternative scenarios to 2025 are explored: one simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future applications of the model are discussed in the concluding section. (JEL Classifications: C53, F11, F17, Q13)

Suggested Citation

  • Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 330-354, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jwecon:v:15:y:2020:i:3:p:330-354_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Beverage Markets: Implications for Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 117-130, May.
    2. Glyn Wittwer, 2021. "Expanding the Global Bev Model to enhance analysis of trade policy, COVID impacts and other wine industry issues," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2021-05, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    3. Inmaculada Carrasco & Juan Sebastián Castillo-Valero & Marcos Carchano & Carmen Córcoles, 2023. "Recent evolution of wine exports in a turbulence period: a multiregional input–output analysis," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Deborah C. Peterson & Lin Crase, 2021. "Disaster, disruption, recovery and resilience: lessons from and for agricultural and resource‐based industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 767-775, October.
    5. Glyn Wittwer, 2021. "Expanding Global Bev to enhance analysis of trade policy, COVID impacts and other wine industry issues," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-319, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Rául Serrano & Juan R. Ferrer & Silvia Abella & Vicente Pinilla, 2023. "International Marketing Strategy And Export Performance In Spanish Wine Firms," Documentos de Trabajo dt2023-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    7. Glyn Wittwer & Kym Anderson, 2021. "COVID‐19’s impact on Australian wine markets and regions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 822-847, October.
    8. Wittwer, Gly & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19’s impact on Australian wine markets and regions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(04), January.
    9. Kym Anderson, 2025. "China s wine market: Recent shocks, long-term prospects," Departmental Working Papers 2025-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. Puga, German & Sharafeyeva, Alfinura & Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Explaining bilateral patterns of global wine trade, 1962–2019," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 338-344, November.
    11. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2025. "Impacts of a US-led tariff war on international trade in wine, beer and spirits," Departmental Working Papers 2025-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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