IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adl/winewp/2019-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Model of Global Beverage Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Glyn Wittwer

    (Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, Australia)

  • Kym Anderson

    (Wine Economics Research Centre, School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia)

Abstract

This paper describes a new empirical model of the world's markets for alcoholic beverages and, to illustrate its usefulness, reports results from projections of those markets from 2016- 18 to 2025 under various scenarios. It not only revises and updates a model of the world's wine markets (Wittwer, Berger and Anderson, 2003) but also adds beer and spirits so as to capture the substitutability of those beverages among consumers. The model has some of the features of an economywide computable general equilibrium model, with international trade linking the markets of its 44 countries and seven residual regions. It is used to simulate prospects for these markets by 2025 (business-as-usual), which points to Asia's rise. Then two alternative scenarios to 2025 are explored: one simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future applications of the model are discussed in the concluding section.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer & Kym Anderson, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2019-05, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:winewp:2019-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://media.adelaide.edu.au/economics/papers/winedoc/winewp2019-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sampson, Thomas, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World's Wine Markets," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2018-01, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    3. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CESifo Working Paper Series 6668, CESifo.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2019. "The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms," NBER Working Papers 26218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," CEP Discussion Papers dp1499, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2019. "Modeling Global Wine Markets to 2018: Exchange Rates, Taste Changes, and China’s Import Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 3, pages 51-90, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Anderson, Kym, 2020. "Consumer Taxes on Alcohol: An International Comparison over Time," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 42-70, February.
    8. Hassan, Tarek Alexander & Hollander, Stephan & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2019. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 14253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    10. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    11. Sampson, Thomas, 2017. "Brexit: the economics of international disintegration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86591, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    13. Mark Horridge, 2011. "The TERM model and its data base," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-219, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange rates and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," CEP Discussion Papers dp1667, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2021. "The impact of non-tariff barriers on trade and welfare," CEP Discussion Papers dp1742, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Anderson, Kym & Wittwer, Glyn, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World's Wine Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    5. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedlacek, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," Discussion Papers 1738, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Hans-Bernd Schäfer & Jörn Axel Kämmerer, 2020. "Der Brexit zwischen britischem Autonomiestreben und Handelsgewinnen [The Brexit between British Autonomy and Trade Gains]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(11), pages 856-861, November.
    7. Petros E. Ioannatos, 2021. "Brexit or Euro for the UK? Evidence from Panel Data," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 117-138, March.
    8. Rocco, Matteo V. & Guevara, Zeus & Heun, Matthew Kuperus, 2020. "Assessing energy and economic impacts of large-scale policy shocks based on Input-Output analysis: Application to Brexit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    9. Collie, David R., 2017. "A Simple Model of Brexit under Oligopoly," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    11. Catherine Mathieu, 2020. "Brexit: what economic impacts does the literature anticipate?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2jt9boop748, Sciences Po.
    12. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Victor Suslov & Naimdzhon Ibragimov & Larisa Mel'nikova, 2018. "Coalition Analysis and Effects of Regional Integration," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1131-1144.
    14. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Marina Steininger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2018. "Quantifying Brexit: From Ex Post to Ex Ante Using Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7357, CESifo.
    15. Renato Faccini & Edoardo Palombo, 2019. "News Uncertainty in Brexit U.K," Discussion Papers 1921, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    16. Volker Clausen, 2019. "A Plea for an exit from Brexit and a second referendum," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 31-35, March.
    17. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2018. "Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 317-328.
    18. Rolf J. Langhammer & Lisandra Flach & Feodora Teti & Lena Wiest & Margherita Atzei & Lisa Scheckenhofer & Joachim Wuermeling & Carsten Hefeker & Friedemann Kainer & Philipp Harms & Michael Kaeding, 2020. "Brexit-Finale: Das letzte Ringen um einen Deal," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 03-27, December.
    19. Fidrmuc, Jan & Hulényi, Martin & Tunalı, Çiğdem Börke, 2019. "Can money buy EU love?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    20. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modeling; wine; beer; spirits; changes in beverage preferences; international trade in beverages; premiumization of alcohol markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adl:winewp:2019-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decadau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kym Anderson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decadau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.