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China s wine market: Recent shocks, long-term prospects

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  • Kym Anderson

Abstract

China was one of the world’s most important areas of growth in wine demand in the 2010s, accounting for 7% of the world’s wine consumption and 8% of its value of wine imports by 2017. But China’s per capita wine consumption peaked in the mid-2010s, and its wine imports have more than halved since then. As well, the sources of China’s imports of wine have fluctuated considerably over the past two decades, making this a risky market for wine exporters. Certainly the COVID-19 disruption played a role, but between 2019 and 2022 the fall in sales was considerably larger for wine (47%) than for spirits (17%) and beer (9%), such that wine’s share of alcohol consumption in China fell by two-fifths over those three years alone. The article examines reasons behind the dramatic gyrations in this globally important market and their impact on wine-exporting countries and speculates on future trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 2025. "China s wine market: Recent shocks, long-term prospects," Departmental Working Papers 2025-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2025-08
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/ACDE%20T%26D%20Anderson%202025%2008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander J. Holmes & Kym Anderson, 2019. "Convergence in National Alcohol Consumption Patterns: New Global Indicators," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 25, pages 631-670, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kym Anderson & Kimie Harada, 2019. "How Much Wine Is Really Produced and Consumed in China, Hong Kong, and Japan?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 15, pages 379-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Kym Anderson, 2020. "Asia’S Emergence In Global Beverage Markets: The Rise Of Wine," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(04), pages 755-779, June.
    4. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 330-354, August.
    5. Anderson, Kym, 2020. "Asia’s emergence in global beverage markets: The rise of wine," CEPR Discussion Papers 14389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Anderson, Kym, 2023. "What's happened to the wine market in China?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 173-183, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2025. "Impacts of a US-led tariff war on international trade in wine, beer and spirits," Departmental Working Papers 2025-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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