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Expanding the Global Bev Model to enhance analysis of trade policy, COVID impacts and other wine industry issues

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  • Glyn Wittwer

    (Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, Australia)

Abstract

The Global Bev Model is a partial equilibrium model of various wine types plus beer and spirits. This paper summarises four enhancements to the model. First, each still wine type is split into red and white. This is relevant in response to the prohibitive tariff imposed by China on Australian wine imports. Second, an on-premise sector is added to improve the depiction of wine consumption in the model. During COVID, lockdowns and social restrictions have resulted in marked reductions in hotel and restaurant activity, with a corresponding reduction in on-premise wine consumption. Now, the impacts on on-premise and off-premise can be analysed separately. Third, given the importance of interstate exports of wine from California to the rest of the nation, California is split from the rest of USA in the global model. Finally, a top-down module has been added to the model to capture sub-national impacts in Australia and sub-state impacts in California.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer, 2021. "Expanding the Global Bev Model to enhance analysis of trade policy, COVID impacts and other wine industry issues," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2021-05, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:winewp:2021-05
    as

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    File URL: https://media.adelaide.edu.au/economics/papers/winedoc/winewp2021-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 330-354, August.
    2. Kym Anderson & Kimie Harada, 2019. "How Much Wine Is Really Produced and Consumed in China, Hong Kong, and Japan?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 15, pages 379-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Mark Horridge, 2011. "The TERM model and its data base," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-219, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global wine modelling; tariff impacts; on-premise consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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