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Causal Relations between Knowledge-Intensive Business Services and Regional Employment Growth

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  • Thomas Brenner
  • Marco Capasso
  • Matthias Duschl
  • Koen Frenken
  • Tania Treibich

Abstract

This paper studies the causal relations between regional employment growth in Knowledge- Intensive Business Services (KIBS) and overall regional employment growth using German labour-market data for the period 1999-2012. Adopting a recently developed technique, we are able to estimate a structural vector autoregressive model in which the causal directions between KIBS and other sectors are examined including various time lags. One main finding holds that although regional growth has a negative short-term effect on KIBS, KIBS growth has a long-term positive effect on the whole regional economy. This result confirms the claim that KIBS can play a key role in regional policies. Distinguishing between financial and non-financial KIBS, we find that financial KIBS have a procyclical effect on regional growth underlining the potential de-stabilizing effect of a large financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Brenner & Marco Capasso & Matthias Duschl & Koen Frenken & Tania Treibich, 2015. "Causal Relations between Knowledge-Intensive Business Services and Regional Employment Growth," LEM Papers Series 2015/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2015/27
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    9. Tommaso Ciarli & Alex Coad & Alessio Moneta, 2019. "Exporting and productivity as part of the growth process: Causal evidence from a data-driven structural VAR," LEM Papers Series 2019/39, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment growth; growth spillovers; KIBS; industrial dynamics; financial geography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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