Uncertainty and heterogeneity in factor models forecasting
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2012. "Uncertainty and Heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Working Papers 5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
References listed on IDEAS
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The generalised dynamic factor model: one sided estimation and forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10129, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003.
"Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
- Schumacher, Christian, 2010.
"Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: The case of German GDP,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 95-98, May.
- Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors: the case of German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Staff Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christian Schumacher, 2007.
"Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 271-302.
- Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Leandro D’Aurizio & Livio Romano, 2011.
"Family Firms and the Great Recession: Out of Sight, Out of Mind?,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2011/28, European University Institute.
- Leandro D�Aurizio & Livio Romano, 2013. "Family firms and the Great Recession: out of sight, out of mind?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 905, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012.
"Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, April.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models," Working Paper Series 680, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005.
"Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2010. "Improved penalization for determining the number of factors in approximate factor models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1806-1813, December.
- Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
- Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2005. "Forecasting Dutch GDP using Large Scale Factor Models," DNB Working Papers 028, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Alexei Onatski, 2009. "Testing Hypotheses About the Number of Factors in Large Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1447-1479, September.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- M. Caivano & A. Harvey, 2013.
"Two EGARCH models and one fat tail,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
1326, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michele Caivano & Andrew Harvey, 2014. "Two EGARCH models and one fat tail," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 954, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
More about this item
Keywords
factor models; model uncertainty; forecast combination; density forecast;JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2013-10-18 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2013-10-18 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_930_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.