Forecasting the term structure of option implied volatility: The power of an adaptive method
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.09.006
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Chen, Ying & Han, Qian & Niu, Linlin, 2018. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Option Implied Volatility: The Power of an Adaptive Method," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-046, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
References listed on IDEAS
- Yingzi Zhu & Jin E. Zhang, 2007. "Variance Term Structure And Vix Futures Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 111-127.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Pigorsch, Uta, 2010. "Localized Realized Volatility Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1376-1393.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
- Chen, Ying & Niu, Linlin, 2014.
"Adaptive dynamic Nelson–Siegel term structure model with applications,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 98-115.
- Ying Chen & Linlin Niu, 2013. "Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model with Applications," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008.
"Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Yintian Wang, 2004. "Option Valuation with Long-run and Short-run Volatility Components," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-56, CIRANO.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai & Yintian Wang, 2008. "Option Valuation with Long-run and Short-run Volatility Components," CREATES Research Papers 2008-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009.
"The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
- Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work so Well," CREATES Research Papers 2009-34, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neumann, Michael & Skiadopoulos, George, 2013. "Predictable Dynamics in Higher-Order Risk-Neutral Moments: Evidence from the S&P 500 Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 947-977, June.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001.
"Long memory and regime switching,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Soku Byoun & Chuck C. Y. Kwok & Hun Y. Park, 2003. "Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatility: Evidence from Foreign Currency and Stock Index Options," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 126-151.
- Mixon, Scott, 2007. "The implied volatility term structure of stock index options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 333-354, June.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang & Spokoiny, Vladimir, 2009.
"Inhomogeneous Dependence Modeling with Time-Varying Copulae,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 224-234.
- Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle & Ekaterina Ignatieva & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-075, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Biao Guo & Qian Han & Bin Zhao, 2014.
"The Nelson–Siegel Model of the Term Structure of Option Implied Volatility and Volatility Components,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 788-806, August.
- Qian Han & Bin Zhao, 2014. "The Nelson-Siegel Model of the Term Structure of Option Implied Volatility and Volatility Components," Working Papers 2014-01-15, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2006.
"Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1591-1636, May.
- Silvia Goncalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Predictable dynamics in the S&P 500 index options implied volatility surface," Working Papers 2005-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
- Wolfgang K. Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Andrija Mihoci, 2015.
"Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High‐Frequency Forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 529-550, June.
- Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Andrija Mihoci, 2012. "Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High-Frequency Forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Biao Guo & Qian Han & Hai Lin, 2018. "Are there gains from using information over the surface of implied volatilities?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 645-672, June.
- Heynen, Ronald & Kemna, Angelien & Vorst, Ton, 1994. "Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 31-56, March.
- Stein, Jeremy, 1989. " Overreactions in the Options Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1011-1023, September.
- Xingguo Luo & Jin E. Zhang, 2012. "The Term Structure of VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(12), pages 1092-1123, December.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
- George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
- Xu, Xinzhong & Taylor, Stephen J., 1994. "The Term Structure of Volatility Implied by Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 57-74, March.
- Fernando Diz & Thomas J. Finucane, 1993. "Do the options markets really overreact?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 299-312, May.
- Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
- Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1995. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 529-547, June.
- Lin, Yueh-Neng, 2013. "VIX option pricing and CBOE VIX Term Structure: A new methodology for volatility derivatives valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4432-4446.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
- Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny & Weining Wang, 2011. "Local Quantile Regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
- Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
- Adam Clements & Yin Liao & Yusui Tang, 2022. "Moving beyond Volatility Index (VIX): HARnessing the term structure of implied volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 86-99, January.
- Zdeněk Drábek & Miloš Kopa & Matúš Maciak & Michal Pešta & Sebastiano Vitali, 2023. "Investment disputes and their explicit role in option market uncertainty and overall risk instability," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-25, December.
- Nasekin, Sergey & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "Deep learning-based cryptocurrency sentiment construction," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-066, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
- Kian-Guan Lim & Christopher Ting, 2012. "The term structure of S&P 100 model-free volatilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1041-1058, November.
- Biao Guo & Qian Han & Hai Lin, 2018. "Are there gains from using information over the surface of implied volatilities?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 645-672, June.
- Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995.
"Stochastic Volatility,"
Papers
95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Eric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
- Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
- Alexander Bogin & William Doerner, 2014.
"Generating historically-based stress scenarios using parsimonious factorization,"
Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 591-611, November.
- Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner, 2013. "Generating Historically-Based Stress Scenarios Using Parsimonious Factorization," FHFA Staff Working Papers 13-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency, revised Aug 2014.
- Krylova, Elizaveta & Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009.
"Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 355-375, September.
- Vähämaa, Sami & Krylova, Elizaveta & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank.
- Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
- Ying Chen & Bo Li & Linlin Niu, 2013. "A Local Vector Autoregressive Framework and its Applications to Multivariate Time Series Monitoring and Forecasting," Working Papers 2013-12-05, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015.
"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lim, Kian Guan & Chen, Ying & Yap, Nelson K.L., 2019. "Intraday information from S&P 500 Index futures options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-55.
- Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014.
"Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
- Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2012. "Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests," Working Papers 456, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998.
"The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
- Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," Papers 95-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Jose M. Campa & P. H. Kevin Chang, 1997. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," NBER Working Papers 5974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pascal François & Rémi Galarneau‐Vincent & Geneviève Gauthier & Frédéric Godin, 2022. "Venturing into uncharted territory: An extensible implied volatility surface model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1912-1940, October.
- Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2009. "Common Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Implied Volatility Surfaces: Evidence from the FX OTC Market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-74.
- Cifarelli, giulio, 2002. "The information content of implied volatilities of options on eurodeposit futures traded on the LIFFE: is there long memory?," MPRA Paper 28538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nobuya Takezawa & Noriyoshi Shiraishi, 1998. "A Note on the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities for the Yen/U.S. Dollar Currency Option," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 5(3), pages 227-236, November.
More about this item
Keywords
Term structure of implied volatility; Local parametric models; Forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:49:y:2018:i:c:p:157-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.