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Empirical performance of component GARCH models in pricing VIX term structure and VIX futures

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  • Cheng, Hung-Wen
  • Chang, Li-Han
  • Lo, Chien-Ling
  • Tsai, Jeffrey Tzuhao

Abstract

Under the component GARCH model of Christoffersen et al. (2008), this research provides the analytical pricing formulae of the VIX term structure and VIX futures, points out the zero-risk premium feature in the fully persistent model of Christoffersen et al. (2008), and examines the pricing performances of eight nested models. Our empirical results show that decomposing conditional variance into long-run and short-run components may not be successful in describing S&P 500 Index returns, volatility indices, and VIX futures prices. Lastly, we conduct trading strategies in the VIX futures market to evaluate the economic significance of model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Hung-Wen & Chang, Li-Han & Lo, Chien-Ling & Tsai, Jeffrey Tzuhao, 2023. "Empirical performance of component GARCH models in pricing VIX term structure and VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 122-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:72:y:2023:i:c:p:122-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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