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Forecasting Industry Employment for a Resource-Based Economy Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

  • Seung, Chang K.

    (AK Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, WA)

  • Ahn, Sung K.

    (WA State U)

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    Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are developed to forecast industry employment for a resource-based economy. Two different types of input-output (I-O) information are used as priors: (i) a reduced-form I-O relationship and (ii) an economic-base version of the I-O information. Out-of-sample forecasts from these two I-O-based BVAR models are compared with forecasts from an autoregressive model, an unconstrained VAR model, and a BVAR model with a Minnesota prior. Results indicate most importantly that overall the model version with economic base information performs the best in the long run.

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    Article provided by Southern Regional Science Association in its journal Review of Regional Studies.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 181-96

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    Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:40:y:2010:i:2:p:181-96
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