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Comparing Simple Forecasting Methods and Complex Methods: A Frame of Forecasting Competition

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  • Emrah Gulay

Abstract

The gross capital formation (GCF), which helps to gradually increase GDP itself, is financed by domestic savings (DS) in both developed and developing countries. Therefore, forecasting GCF is the key subject to the economists’ decisions making. In this study, I use simple forecasting methods, namely dynamic relation model called “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)†, and complex methods such as Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method and ARIMA-ANFIS method to determine which method provides better out-of-sample forecasting performance. In addition, the contribution of this study is to show how important to use domestic savings in forecasting GCF. On the other hand, ANFIS and hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS methods are comparatively new, and no GCF modeling using ANFIS and ARIMA-ANFIS was attempted until recently to the best of my knowledge. In addition, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model serve as benchmarks, allowing for fair competing for the study. JEL Codes - C45; C53

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah Gulay, 2018. "Comparing Simple Forecasting Methods and Complex Methods: A Frame of Forecasting Competition," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(2), pages 159-169, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:65:y:2018:i:2:p:159-169:n:104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Sabur, S. Abdus & Haque, Md. Ershadul, 1993. "An Analysis Of Rice Price In Mymensing Town Market: Pattern And Forecasting," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-917, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic relation model; ANFIS; ARIMA-ANFIS; gross capital formation; domestic savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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