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On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information

  • Maximiano Pinheiro
  • Paulo Soares Esteves

Institutions which publish macroeconomic forecasts usually do not rely on a single econometric model to generate their forecasts. The combination of judgements with information from different models complicates the problem of characterizing the predictive density. This paper proposes a parametric approach to construct the joint and marginal densities of macroeconomic forecasting errors, combining judgements with sample and model information. We assume that the relevant variables are linear combinations of latent independent two-piece normal variables. The baseline point forecasts are interpreted as the mode of the joint distribution, which has the convenient feature of being invariant to judgments on the balance of risks.

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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200821.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200821
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  1. Villani, Mattias & Larsson, Rolf, 2004. "The Multivariate Split Normal Distribution and Asymmetric Principal Components Analysis," Working Paper Series 175, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
  3. repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Claudia Miani & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "A non-parametric model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 758, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Prakash Kannan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Incorporating Market Information Into the Construction of the Fan Chart," IMF Working Papers 09/178, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2004. "An Assessment of Bank of England and National Institute Inflation Forecast Uncertainties," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 64-71, July.
  7. Álvaro A. Novo & Maximiano Pinheiro, 2003. "Uncertainty And Risk Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Fan Charts Revisited," Working Papers w200319, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1990. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, October.
  9. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ferreira, Jose T.A.S. & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Model comparison of coordinate-free multivariate skewed distributions with an application to stochastic frontiers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 641-673, April.
  11. repec:dgr:kubcen:199658 is not listed on IDEAS
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