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Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Robert H. McGuckin

  • Ataman Ozyildirim

Abstract

In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using „composition-changing” or „as-published” versions of the LEI with those based on „composition-constant” indexes. The goal is ...

Suggested Citation

  • Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2004. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 171-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5lmqcr2jcpd8
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Loría, Eduardo & Brito, L., 2004. "Is the Consumer Confidence Index a Sound Predictor of the Private Demand in the United States?," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-15, Diciembre.
    2. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
    3. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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