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Construction demand: a model of research and forecast for Latvia from 2002 to 2025

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  • Skribans, Valerijs

Abstract

In the paper it has been analyzed specific character of building economy; developed a model of branch forecasting, forecast of construction branch in Latvia. The model consists of two parts: formation of demand and supply. The basic role belongs to demand forecasting. Demand form three components: 1) enterprisal demand for industrial construction and other type of construction, 2) demand on dwelling construction and 3) state construction orders. In the paper changes in demand are investigated on the basis of increase of population common well-being level, transition of inhabitants from one income group to another and transition influence on formation of construction demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Skribans, Valerijs, 2003. "Construction demand: a model of research and forecast for Latvia from 2002 to 2025," MPRA Paper 16366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16366
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16366/1/MPRA_paper_16366.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2003. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares attīstības prognoze
      [Latvian construction brunch development forecast]
      ," MPRA Paper 26072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Būvniecības nozares prognozēšanas modelis
      [Construction branch forecasting model]
      ," MPRA Paper 20393, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    3. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Iedzīvotāju būvniecības pieprasījuma salīdzināšana Latvijā un Eiropas Savienībā
      [Householders construction demand comparison for Latvia and European Union]
      ," MPRA Paper 36059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Construction industry forecasting system dynamic model," MPRA Paper 27323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares uzņēmumu finansiālās stabilitātes novērtēšana
      [Estimation of the financial stability of the Latvian building industry enterprises]
      ," MPRA Paper 27095, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    construction economy; dynamic simulation; econometric model; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

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