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Filtering with Limited Information

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Drautzburg
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Pablo Guerrón-Quintana
  • Dick Oosthuizen

Abstract

We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the hidden states of the dynamic model. The first condition is that the state is sufficiently volatile or persistent to be recoverable. The second condition requires the possibly non-linear measurement to be sufficiently smooth and to map uniquely to the state absent measurement error. We illustrate the method through various simulation studies and an empirical application to a sudden stops model applied to Mexican data.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 11243, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11243
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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