IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erh/journl/v1y2009i1p50-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information Spillover, Volatility and the Currency Markets for the Binary Choice Model

Author

Listed:
  • Walid Ben Omrane

    (Brock University)

  • Christian M. Hafner

    (Universite catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

We use an impulse response methodology to analyse the effects of U.S. macroeconomic news announcements on the volatilities of three major exchange rates (Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen). Our data consist of 5 minute returns on exchange rates as well as the times of news announcements. In the definition of impulse responses, we allow for different types of news, and consider two categories in the application: those considered positive or negative for the U.S. economy. Using a multivariate GARCH model with exogenous news effects, we find that the initial impact of positive news on the volatility of the Pound is higher than that of the Euro, whereas the persistence of shocks is highest for the Yen. For negative news, we find that an important part of the impact on the Yen and Pound is induced by volatility spillover from the Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Walid Ben Omrane & Christian M. Hafner, 2009. "Information Spillover, Volatility and the Currency Markets for the Binary Choice Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(1), pages 50-62, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:50-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.era.org.tr/makaleler/390010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Ben Omrane, Walid & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1108-1125, November.
    3. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    4. Beine, Michel, 2004. "Conditional covariances and direct central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, June.
    5. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 70-86, February.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Christian Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Analytical quasi maximum likelihood inference in multivariate volatility models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 219-239, March.
    8. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    9. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    10. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December.
    11. HAFNER, Christian & HERWARTZ, Helmut, 1998. "Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1998047, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Jun Cai & Yan-Leung Cheung & Raymond Lee & Michael Melvin, "undated". "'Once-in-a-Generation' Yen Volatility in 1998: Fundamentals, Intervention, and Order Flow," Working Papers 2132865, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    15. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Lee, Raymond S. K. & Melvin, Michael, 2001. "'Once-in-a-generation' yen volatility in 1998: fundamentals, intervention, and order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 327-347, June.
    16. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1997. "Impulse Response Function for Conditional Volatility in GARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 15-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Woźniak, 2018. "Granger-causal analysis of GARCH models: A Bayesian approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 325-346, April.
    2. Ben Omrane, Walid & Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2016. "Foreign news and the structure of co-movement in European equity markets: An intraday analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 572-582.
    3. Stephan Schwill, 2018. "Entropy Analysis of Financial Time Series," Papers 1807.09423, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walid Ben Omrane & Christian Hafner, 2015. "Macroeconomic news surprises and volatility spillover in foreign exchange markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 577-607, March.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    4. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    5. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    6. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    7. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2015. "Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-10, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    8. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael & Wu, Thomas, 2012. "Asymmetries and state dependence: The impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 542-560.
    9. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3246-3262, July.
    10. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    11. Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
    12. Ben Omrane, Walid & Heinen, Andréas, 2009. "Is there any common knowledge news in the Euro/Dollar market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 656-670, October.
    13. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "News implied volatility and long-term foreign exchange market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 126-142.
    14. HAFNER, Christian & HERWARTZ, Helmut, 1998. "Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1998047, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. Ben Omrane, Walid & de Bodt, Eric, 2007. "Using self-organizing maps to adjust for intra-day seasonality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1817-1838, June.
    16. Xiaochun Liu, 2018. "Structural Volatility Impulse Response Function and Asymptotic Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 316-339.
    17. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    18. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    19. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," CARF F-Series CARF-F-219, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    20. Christian M. Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Testing for linear vector autoregressive dynamics under multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 294-323, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information; Volatility; Impulse Response Function; Foreign Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:50-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. F. Cosar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eratrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.