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Macroeconomic news surprises and volatility spillover in foreign exchange markets

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  • Ben Omrane, Walid
  • Hafner, Christian

Abstract

This paper examines the link between exchange rate volatility and economic fundamentals. In the framework of a multivariate volatility model that allows volatility spillover, we develop a new impulse response analysis to estimate and decompose the simultaneous effect of macroeconomic news surprises on the foreign exchange volatility. We show that news announcement effects include two components: a direct and an indirect effect induced by volatility spillover. We show that more than 50 % of the total accumulated news effect on the Pound and the Yen is due to volatility transmission from the two major currencies and mainly from the Euro. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Omrane, Walid & Hafner, Christian, 2015. "Macroeconomic news surprises and volatility spillover in foreign exchange markets," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2015028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2015028
    Note: In : Empirical Economics, vol. 48, no. 2, p. 577-607 (2015)
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2019. "Central bank announcements and realized volatility of stock markets in G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 117-135.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Roy Trivedi, Smita, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility: Trader's beliefs and the role of news," MPRA Paper 89330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2022. "The Janus view: Do market participants looking into the past impact foreign exchange volatility?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3990-4001, October.
    5. Haidong Cai & Shamim Ahmed & Ying Jiang & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "The impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on Chinese commodity futures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 1927-1966, December.
    6. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid, 2022. "Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Exploring the Role of Order Flow," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 222-245, May.
    7. Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Radu LUPU, 2016. "The Effects Of Labor Market News On International Financial Markets," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 11(2), pages 207-215, June.
    8. Chang, Ya-Ting & Gau, Yin-Feng & Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2017. "Liquidity Commonality in Foreign Exchange Markets During the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: Effects of Macroeconomic and Quantitative Easing Announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-192.
    9. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Lazrak, Skander & Yan, Xusheng, 2020. "OPEC production decisions, macroeconomic news, and volatility in the Canadian currency and oil markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid & Hajra Ihsan, 2022. "The news effects on exchange rate returns and volatility: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 745-769, January.
    11. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
    12. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    13. Ekinci, Cumhur & Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen, 2019. "Analysing the dynamic influence of US macroeconomic news releases on Turkish stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 155-164.
    14. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Intraday analysis of macroeconomic news surprises and asymmetries in mini-futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 150-168.
    15. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-143.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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