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A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

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  • Oliver Blaskowitz
  • Helmut Herwartz

Abstract

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic ex–ante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of choosing excessively poor models from a parameterized class of candidate specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model selection; Principal components; Factor analysis; Ex–ante forecasting; EURIBOR swap term structure; Trading strategies.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

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