IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2008-064.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Blaskowitz
  • Helmut Herwartz

Abstract

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic ex–ante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of choosing excessively poor models from a parameterized class of candidate specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-064.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model selection; Principal components; Factor analysis; Ex–ante forecasting; EURIBOR swap term structure; Trading strategies.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.