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Data-Rich DSGE Model Forecasts of the Great Recession and its Recovery

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  • Sacha Gelfer

    (Bentley University)

Abstract

I investigate the extent to which modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can produce macroeconomic and labor market dynamics in response to a financial crisis that are consistent with the experience of the Great Recession. Using the methods of Boivin and Giannoni (2006) and Kryshko (2011), I estimate two DSGE models in a data-rich environment. The two models estimated in this paper include close variations of the Smets and Wouters (2003; 2007) New Keynesian model and the FRBNY (Del Negro et al., 2013) model that augments the Smets & Wouters model with a financial accelerator. I find the model with a financial accelerator that is estimated in a data-rich environment is able to significantly out-forecast modern DSGE models not estimated in a data-rich environment and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in regard to core macroeconomic growth variables and many labor and financial metrics including the unemployment rate, total number of employees by sector and business loans. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Sacha Gelfer, 2019. "Data-Rich DSGE Model Forecasts of the Great Recession and its Recovery," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 18-41, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Roland Meeks & Boromeus Wanengkirtyo & Lien Laureys, 2020. "Optimal Simple Objectives for Monetary Policy when Banks Matter," IMF Working Papers 2020/244, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "Re-evaluating Okun’s Law: Why all recessions and recoveries are “different”," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data-rich DSGE; DSGE-DFM; Financial accelerator; Forecast evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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