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Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns

  • Massimo Guidolin

    ()

    (IGIER, Bocconi University and CAIR, Manchester Business School)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    ()

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Andrea Donato Tortora

    ()

    (Bocconi University, Milan)

This paper uses a multi-factor pricing model with time-varying risk exposures and premia to examine whether the 2003-2006 period has been characterized, as often claimed by a number of commentators and policymakers, by a substantial missprcing of publicly traded real estate assets (REITs). The estimation approach relies on Bayesian methods to model the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979-2009 U.S. data for stock, bond, and REIT returns shows that both market and real consumption growth risks are priced throughout the sample by the cross-section of asset returns. There is weak evidence at best of structural misspricing of REIT valuations during the 2003-2006 sample.

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2011/WP-201119/
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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2011/19.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 27 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2011_19
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