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Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate

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  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Francesco Ravazzolo
  • Andrea Tortora

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-factor pricing model with time-varying risk exposures and premia to examine whether the 2003–2006 period has been characterized, as often claimed by a number of commentators and policymakers, by a substantial mispricing of publicly traded real estate assets (REITs). The estimation approach relies on Bayesian methods to model the latent process followed by risk exposures and idiosynchratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1979–2009 U.S. data for stock, bond, and REIT returns shows that both market and real consumption growth risks are priced throughout the sample by the cross-section of asset returns. There is weak evidence at best of structural mispricing of REIT valuations during the 2003–2006 sample. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Tortora, 2014. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 477-523, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:4:p:477-523
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-013-9404-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REIT returns; Bayesian estimation; Structural instability; Stochastic volatility; Linear factor models; G11; C53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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