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State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks

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  • Boons, Martijn

Abstract

I study whether risk premiums for exposure to state variables in the cross-section of individual stocks are consistent with how these variables forecast macroeconomic activity in the time series. I find such time series and cross-sectional consistency. This finding suggests that investors are ultimately concerned about business cycle risk and therefore require a premium for exposure to variables that contain systematic economic news. This finding challenges recent portfolio-level evidence showing that state variable risk premiums are inconsistent with hedging incentives in the Intertemporal CAPM. Moreover, state variable risk premiums are not fully captured by the factors and characteristics of Fama and French (1992, 1993).

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  • Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:119:y:2016:i:3:p:489-511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.05.010
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    Cited by:

    1. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2016. "The size premium and intertemporal risk," Discussion Papers on Economics 3/2016, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    2. Maximilian Renz & Olaf Stotz, 2021. "A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 73-94, January.
    3. Christian Schlag & Michael Semenischev & Julian Thimme, 2021. "Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7932-7950, December.
    4. Adcock, Christopher & Bessler, Wolfgang & Conlon, Thomas, 2022. "Characteristic-sorted portfolios and macroeconomic risks—An orthogonal decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-50.
    5. Shi, Qi & Li, Bin, 2022. "Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Sy, Oumar & Zaman, Ashraf Al, 2020. "Is the presidential premium spurious?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-104.
    8. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    9. Xyngis, Georgios, 2017. "Business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence for scale-dependent risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 43-65.
    10. Pintor, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2022. "Cryptocurrency returns under empirical asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
    13. Schlag, Christian & Semenischev, Michael & Thimme, Julian, 2020. "Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns: A challenge for asset pricing models," SAFE Working Paper Series 289, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Zhang, Han, 2021. "An inflation-based ICAPM in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Shock with the Highest Price of Risk," Discussion Papers 1623, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2017.
    16. Borup, Daniel, 2019. "Asset pricing model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 166-189.
    17. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    18. Pinter, Gabor, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90370, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. T. Gärtner & S. Kaniovski & Y. Kaniovski, 2021. "Numerical estimates of risk factors contingent on credit ratings," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 563-589, October.
    21. Abad, David & Nieto, Belén & Pascual, Roberto & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2023. "Market-wide illiquidity and the distribution of non-parametric stochastic discount factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    22. Ilan Cooper & Paulo Maio, 2019. "Asset Growth, Profitability, and Investment Opportunities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 3988-4010, September.
    23. Shi, Qi, 2023. "The RP-PCA factors and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    24. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2022. "More predictors of the investment opportunity set in the ICAPM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    25. Barroso, Pedro & Boons, Martijn & Karehnke, Paul, 2021. "Time-varying state variable risk premia in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 428-451.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State variables; Macroeconomic risk; Linear asset pricing models; Individual stock returns; Time series and cross-sectional consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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