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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Estrella, Arturo

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4P9SN9P-1/1/dd2bb24e7f949161250d91d7d0fb547b
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 260-264

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:2:p:260-264
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August.
  2. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Friedman, Milton, 1970. "Controls on Interest Rates Paid by Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, February.
  5. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Indicator properties of the paper-bill spread: lessons from recent experience," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  7. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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