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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Estrella, Arturo

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4P9SN9P-1/1/dd2bb24e7f949161250d91d7d0fb547b
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 260-264

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:2:p:260-264
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
  2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February.
  3. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  8. Friedman, Milton, 1970. "Controls on Interest Rates Paid by Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, February.
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