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Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets

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  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Ravazzolo, Francesco
  • Tortora, Andrea Donato

Abstract

This paper analyzes the empirical performance of two alternative ways in which multi-factor models with time-varying risk exposures and premia may be estimated. The first method echoes the seminal two-pass approach introduced by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The second approach is based on a Bayesian latent mixture model with breaks in risk exposures and idiosyncratic volatility. Our application to monthly, 1980–2010 U.S. data on stock, bond, and publicly traded real estate returns shows that the classical, two-stage approach that relies on a nonparametric, rolling window estimation of time-varying betas yields results that are unreasonable. There is evidence that most portfolios of stocks, bonds, and REITs have been grossly over-priced. On the contrary, the Bayesian approach yields sensible results and a few factor risk premia are precisely estimated with a plausible sign. Predictive log-likelihood scores indicate that discrete breaks in both risk exposures and variances are required to fit the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Guidolin, Massimo & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Tortora, Andrea Donato, 2013. "Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 87-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:53:y:2013:i:2:p:87-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    2. Salotti, Simone & Trecroci, Carmine, 2014. "Multifactor risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-404.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; Latent jumps; Stochastic volatility; Linear factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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