IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model

  • Vladimir Dubrovskiy
  • Inna Golodniuk
  • Janusz Szyrmer
Registered author(s):

    The project has undertaken the following tasks: Based on an analysis of the pattern of growth of the Ukrainian economy since the end of the post-Soviet recession (the year 2000) we have formulated the hypotheses concerning the factors preceding/affecting the upturns and downturns (with a focus on the latter) of the country’s growth; We have studied international “best practice” in early warning indicators in order to design a similar system for Ukraine; We have selected the relevant indicators, consistent with our hypotheses and used a probit model in order to experiment with these indicators; The final set of indicators used in the model included the following lagged independent variables: changes in the value of export, changes in real Exchange rate of the hryvnya, producers’ price index adjusted for domestic price inflation index and the IMF’s metal price index, bank credit interest rate, changes in the industrial output of the European Union; our dependent variable (which was used as a proxy for the overall economic growth) was changes in real industrial output; The model was used to formulate a warning forecast for the Ukrainian economy for the second half of 2008 based on the data for the January 2000 – June 2008 period; all predictions for the second half of 2008 have delivered warning about a downturn of the Ukrainian economy; We ran a few additional experiments with the model, and We have recommended several further steps of analysis toward a full implementation and institutionalization of such a model in the near future.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/24527666_CNR_85_final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Reports with number 0085.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 62 Pages
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0085
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Aleja Jana Pawla II, 61, 01-031 Warsaw
    Phone: +48 22 206 29 00
    Fax: +48 22 206 29 01
    Web page: http://www.case-research.eu/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0294, European Central Bank.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
    5. Everhart, Stephen S. & Duval-Hernandez, Robert, 2000. "Leading indicator project - Lithuania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2365, The World Bank.
    6. Michael Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
    7. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
    8. N. Valckx & M.J.K.de Ceuster & J. Annaert, 2003. "Is Financial Market Volatility Informative to Predict Recessions?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 93, Netherlands Central Bank.
    9. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    10. Bernard, Henri J & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. North, Douglass C. & Wallis, John Joseph & Webb, Steven B. & Weingast, Barry R., 2007. "Limited access orders in the developing world :a new approach to the problems of development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4359, The World Bank.
    13. Douglass C North & John Joseph Wallis & Barry R. Weingast, 2006. "A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History," NBER Working Papers 12795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Agata Kwiek)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.