IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Persistent Business Cycles and High Economic Growth: How to Explain Their Long Concurrence in Modern Capitalism?

Listed author(s):
  • Victor Zarnowitz


    (The Conference Board)

Registered author(s):

    Prior to the second half of the twentieth century, the economy of the United States was distinguished by cyclical instability and low growth; however, since the end of WWII, business cycles have moderated, coupled with relatively higher economic growth. Characteristically, in the second half of the twentieth century, periods of expansion were on average six times as long as periods of contraction, with growth cycles being more symmetric in nature. This paper addresses several internal dynamics behind business cycles (mainly endogenous constructs) and outside impulses or disturbances (theories with major exogenous and stochastic elements) that can be attributed to modern business cycle depth and duration. Reasons outlined for this observed business cycle moderation include more effective countercyclical policy by the Federal Reserve, the lack of financial crises and major depressions marked by big business and bank failures, a shift in the structure of global market economies and the employment of automatic stabilizers.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by The Conference Board, Economics Program in its series Economics Program Working Papers with number 07-03.

    in new window

    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2007
    Handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0703
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    845 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022-6679

    Phone: (212) 759-0900
    Fax: (212) 980-7014
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (A Ozyildirim)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.