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Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators


  • Charlotte Christiansen

    () (Aarhus University, Business and Social Sciences and CREATES)


Severe simultaneous recessions are de?ned to occur when at least half of the countries under investigation (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions that extend upon stylized facts for US recessions. One, are the occurrences of simultaneous recessions predictable? Two, does the yield spread predict future occurrences of simultaneous recessions? I use the indicator for severe simultaneous recessions as the explained variable in probit models. The lagged yield spread is an important explanatory variable, where decreasing yield spreads are a leading indicator for severe simultaneous recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Christiansen, 2011. "Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2011-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2011-20

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    3. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
    4. Wagner, Stephan M. & Mizgier, Kamil J. & Papageorgiou, Stylianos, 2017. "Operational disruptions and business cycles," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 66-78.

    More about this item


    Business cycle; Recessions; Yield spread; Probit model;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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