IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/115508.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Zixiu
  • Fantazzini, Dean

Abstract

This paper examines the trading performances of several technical oscillators created using crypto assets pricing methods for short-term bitcoin trading. Seven pricing models proposed in the professional and academic literature were transformed into oscillators, and two thresholds were introduced to create buy and sell signals. The empirical back testing analysis showed that some of these methods proved to be profitable with good Sharpe ratios and limited max drawdowns. However, the trading performances of almost all methods significantly worsened after 2017, thus indirectly confirming an increasing financial literature that showed that the introduction of bitcoin futures in 2017 improved the efficiency of bitcoin markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Zixiu & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading," MPRA Paper 115508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115508/1/MPRA_paper_115508.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Fantazzini, 2022. "Crypto-Coins and Credit Risk: Modelling and Forecasting Their Probability of Death," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2018. "Bitcoin technical trading with artificial neural network," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1078, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Köchling, Gerrit & Müller, Janis & Posch, Peter N., 2019. "Does the introduction of futures improve the efficiency of Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 367-370.
    4. García-Monleón, Fernando & Danvila-del-Valle, Ignacio & Lara, Francisco J., 2021. "Intrinsic value in crypto currencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Fry, John, 2018. "Booms, busts and heavy-tails: The story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 225-229.
    6. Xiong, Jinwu & Liu, Qing & Zhao, Lei, 2020. "A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Dean Fantazzini & Raffaella Calabrese, 2021. "Crypto Exchanges and Credit Risk: Modeling and Forecasting the Probability of Closure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Dean Fantazzini & Stephan Zimin, 2020. "A multivariate approach for the simultaneous modelling of market risk and credit risk for cryptocurrencies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 19-69, March.
    9. Dean Fantazzini & Nikita Kolodin, 2020. "Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-29, October.
    10. Akanksha Jalan & Roman Matkovskyy & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "What effect did the introduction of Bitcoin futures have on the Bitcoin spot market?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(13), pages 1251-1281, September.
    11. Hattori, Takahiro & Ishida, Ryo, 2021. "Did the introduction of Bitcoin futures crash the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Jiaqi Liang & Linjing Li & Daniel Zeng, 2018. "Evolutionary dynamics of cryptocurrency transaction networks: An empirical study," Papers 1808.08585, arXiv.org.
    13. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2018. "Bitcoin technical trading with artificial neural network," CARF F-Series CARF-F-430, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. John Hargrave & Navroop Sahdev & Olga Feldmeier, 2019. "How Value is Created in Tokenized Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Melanie Swan & Jason Potts & Soichiro Takagi & Frank Witte & Paolo Tasca (ed.), Blockchain Economics: Implications of Distributed Ledgers Markets, Communications Networks, and Algorithmic Reality, chapter 7, pages 125-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi, 2018. "Bitcoin technical trading with artificial neural network," CARF F-Series CARF-F-441, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    16. Ruan, Qingsong & Meng, Lu & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Effect of introducing Bitcoin futures on the underlying Bitcoin market efficiency: A multifractal analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    17. Marcel Thum, 2018. "The Economic Cost of Bitcoin Mining," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(01), pages 43-45, March.
    18. Delgado-Mohatar, Oscar & Felis-Rota, Marta & Fernández-Herraiz, Carlos, 2019. "The Bitcoin mining breakdown: Is mining still profitable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Jiaqi Liang & Linjing Li & Daniel Zeng, 2018. "Evolutionary dynamics of cryptocurrency transaction networks: An empirical study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    20. D'aniel Kondor & M'arton P'osfai & Istv'an Csabai & G'abor Vattay, 2013. "Do the rich get richer? An empirical analysis of the BitCoin transaction network," Papers 1308.3892, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
    21. Yulin Liu & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach," Papers 2201.12893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    22. Alexandre Bovet & Carlo Campajola & Francesco Mottes & Valerio Restocchi & Nicol`o Vallarano & Tiziano Squartini & Claudio J. Tessone, 2019. "The evolving liaisons between the transaction networks of Bitcoin and its price dynamics," Papers 1907.03577, arXiv.org.
    23. Liu, Ruozhou & Wan, Shanfeng & Zhang, Zili & Zhao, Xuejun, 2020. "Is the introduction of futures responsible for the crash of Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    24. Dániel Kondor & Márton Pósfai & István Csabai & Gábor Vattay, 2014. "Do the Rich Get Richer? An Empirical Analysis of the Bitcoin Transaction Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, February.
    25. Nakano, Masafumi & Takahashi, Akihiko & Takahashi, Soichiro, 2018. "Bitcoin technical trading with artificial neural network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 587-609.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dean Fantazzini, 2022. "Crypto-Coins and Credit Risk: Modelling and Forecasting Their Probability of Death," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & David Martinez-Rego & Fan Wu & Lingbo Li, 2022. "Cryptocurrency trading: a comprehensive survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-59, December.
    3. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    5. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Kong, Xiao-Lin & Baltas, Konstantinos & Zureigat, Qasim, 2022. "Past, present, and future of the application of machine learning in cryptocurrency research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    7. Li, Mu-Yao & Cai, Qing & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Exponentially decayed double power-law distribution of Bitcoin trade sizes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    8. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & Lingbo Li & David Martinez-Regoband & Fan Wu, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 2003.11352, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Vasu Kalariya & Pushpendra Parmar & Patel Jay & Sudeep Tanwar & Maria Simona Raboaca & Fayez Alqahtani & Amr Tolba & Bogdan-Constantin Neagu, 2022. "Stochastic Neural Networks-Based Algorithmic Trading for the Cryptocurrency Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Jlassi, Nabila Boukef & Jeribi, Ahmed & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2023. "Subsample analysis of stock market – cryptocurrency returns tail dependence: A copula approach for the tails," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    12. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    13. Suhwan Ji & Jongmin Kim & Hyeonseung Im, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Deep Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Krzysztof Piasecki & Michał Dominik Stasiak, 2020. "Optimization Parameters of Trading System with Constant Modulus of Unit Return," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-17, August.
    15. Amina Ladhari & Heni Boubaker, 2024. "Deep Learning Models for Bitcoin Prediction Using Hybrid Approaches with Gradient-Specific Optimization," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrage," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 87-110.
    17. Erdinc Akyildirim & Oguzhan Cepni & Shaen Corbet & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Forecasting mid-price movement of Bitcoin futures using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 553-584, November.
    18. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    19. Yue, Yao & Li, Xuerong & Zhang, Dingxuan & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "How cryptocurrency affects economy? A network analysis using bibliometric methods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Julien Chevallier & Dominique Guégan & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-44, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C32; C51; C53; C58; G11; G12; G17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.