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World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections


  • Masuda, Tadayoshi
  • Goldsmith, Peter D.


Soybeans are one of the most valuable crops in the world and are characterized by their multi-purpose uses: food, feed, fuel and other industrial usages such as paint, inks, and plastics. Out of 183.9 million tons of world supply/demand of soybeans in 2001-03 year, about 10% of them were directly consumed as food (5.9%) or feed (3.8%) but 84.2% of them were crushed into soyoil and soymeal. Soyoil is mainly processed to vegetable oil for human consumption and recently used as a biodiesel feedstock. Soymeal is used not only as feed for livestock (especially for pork and poultry due to its low fiber level) and aquaculture, but also as a good source of protein for the human diet in a variety of forms in different cultures. This paper analyzes the relationship of the demand for soybeans with economy at country and international levels. We use the county level domestic demand quantities with GDP data and apply an error correction mechanism (ECM) to estimate the long-term elasticities of demand for soybeans in the market/economy. Using the estimated long-term elasticities, the demands for soybeans are projected through 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., 2009. "World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49490, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49490

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ward, Clement E. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2007. "Price Discovery and Captive Supply Implications for the Canadian Beef Industry," CAFRI: Current Agriculture, Food and Resource Issues, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society, issue 08.
    2. Rude, James & Carlberg, Jared G., 2006. "Kill or Shill: Processing Capacity and Cattle Prices with a Closed Border," CAFRI: Current Agriculture, Food and Resource Issues, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society, issue 07.
    3. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Mintert, James R., 2004. "Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(02), August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richards, Peter D., 2012. "Exchange Rates, Soybean Supply Response, and Deforestation in South America," Graduate Research Masters Degree Plan B Papers 138606, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

    More about this item


    soybean demand; elasticity; error correction mechanism (ECM); projection; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; C22; C53; Q11;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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