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Meeting the demand: An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production

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  • Fiala, Nathan

Abstract

Current production processes for meat products have been shown to have a significant impact on the environment, accounting for between 15% and 24% of current greenhouse gas emissions. Meat consumption has been increasing at a fantastic rate and is likely to continue to do so into the future. If this demand is to be met, technology used in production in the form of Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) will need to be expanded. This paper estimates future meat consumption and discusses the potential aggregate environmental impact of this production if the use of CAFOs is expanded. I first separate meat into beef, chicken and pig products and estimate the elasticities associated with each product in order to forecast the world demand for meat. Using research on the environmental impact of food production in the US, which uses one of the most efficient CAFO processes in the world, I then calculate the total potential greenhouse emissions of this meat production and discuss the impact of these consumption patterns. I find that, under an expanded CAFO system, meat production in the future will still be a large producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for up to 6.3% of current greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiala, Nathan, 2008. "Meeting the demand: An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 412-419, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:67:y:2008:i:3:p:412-419
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    Cited by:

    1. Soler, Louis-Georges & Thomas, Alban, 2020. "Is there a win–win scenario with increased beef quality and reduced consumption?," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 101(1), July.
    2. Alban Thomas, 2020. "Is there a win-win scenario with both limited beef production and reduced beef consumption?," Working Papers hal-02790948, HAL.
    3. Panzone, Luca A. & Wossink, Ada & Southerton, Dale, 2013. "The design of an environmental index of sustainable food consumption: A pilot study using supermarket data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 44-55.
    4. Fathi, Fatemeh & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2021. "Economic and environmental strategies against targeting energy subsidy in Iranian meat market: A game theory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Lívia Garcez de Oliveira Padilha & Lenka Malek & Wendy J. Umberger, 2021. "Sustainable Meat: Looking through the Eyes of Australian Consumers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    6. Tang, Kai & He, Chuantian & Ma, Chunbo & Wang, Dong, 2019. "Does carbon farming provide a cost-effective option to mitigate GHG emissions? Evidence from China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(3), July.
    7. Martin, William J. & Fukase, Emiko, 2014. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197164, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    8. Benjamin De Groeve & Brent Bleys, 2017. "Less Meat Initiatives at Ghent University: Assessing the Support among Students and How to Increase It," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Dai, Xiao-wen & Sun, Zhanli & Müller, Daniel, 2021. "Driving factors of direct greenhouse gas emissions from China’s pig industry from 1976 to 2016," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 319-329.
    10. Schmiess, Jacob S. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2022. "Tradeoff between Animal Welfare and Environmental Impacts of Beef Production: An Analysis of Presentation Effects on Consumer Choice," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
    11. Roberto Louis Forestal & Shih-Ming Pi, 2021. "Using Artificial Neural networks and Optimal Scaling Model to Forecast Agriculture Commodity Price: An Ecological-economic Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-3.
    12. Caroline Ignell & Peter Davies & Cecilia Lundholm, 2013. "Swedish Upper Secondary School Students’ Conceptions of Negative Environmental Impact and Pricing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Yalin Mo & Junyu Zhao & Thomas Li-Ping Tang, 2023. "Religious Beliefs Inspire Sustainable HOPE (Help Ourselves Protect the Environment): Culture, Religion, Dogma, and Liturgy—The Matthew Effect in Religious Social Responsibility," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 184(3), pages 665-685, May.
    14. Carfì, David & Donato, Alessia & Schilirò, Daniele, 2018. "An environmentally sustainable global economy. A coopetitive model," MPRA Paper 86718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Patrick Tomberger, 2022. "Do methane emissions converge? Evidence from global panel data on production- and consumption-based emissions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 877-900, August.
    16. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    17. Haiying Shao & Bowen Li & Yanjun Jiang, 2023. "Effect and Mechanism of Environmental Decentralization on Pollution Emission from Pig Farming—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Almeida, Alexandre N. & Santos, Augusto S. & Halmenschlager, Vinícius & Gilio, Leandro & Diniz, Tiago B. & Ferreira, Alexandre A. S., 2016. "Flexible-fuel automobiles and CO2 emissions in Brazil: a semiparametric analysis using panel data," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235733, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Bonnet, Céline & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Corre, Tifenn, 2016. "An environmental tax towards more sustainable food consumption: empirical evidence of the French meat and marine food consumption," TSE Working Papers 16-639, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Carfì, David & Donato, Alessia & Schilirò, Daniele, 2018. "Sustainability of global feeding.Coopetitive interaction among vegan and non-vegan food firms," MPRA Paper 88400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mainali, Brijesh & Emran, Saad Been & Silveira, Semida, 2017. "Greenhouse gas mitigation using poultry litter management techniques in Bangladesh," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 155-166.
    22. Bonnet, Céline & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Corre, Tifenn, 2018. "An Environmental Tax Towards More Sustainable Food: Empirical Evidence of the Consumption of Animal Products in France," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 48-61.
    23. Vainio, Annukka & Niva, Mari & Jallinoja, Piia & Latvala, Terhi, 2015. "From beef to beans: Eating motives and the replacement of animal proteins with plant proteins among the Finnish consumers," 143rd Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, March 25-27, 2015, Naples, Italy 202732, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    24. Barlow, C.Y. & Morgan, D.C., 2013. "Polymer film packaging for food: An environmental assessment," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 74-80.
    25. Paula Arcari, 2017. "Normalised, human-centric discourses of meat and animals in climate change, sustainability and food security literature," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 34(1), pages 69-86, March.

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