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A Tool to Nowcast Tourist Overnight Stays with Payment Data and Complementary Indicators

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  • Marta Crispino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Vincenzo Mariani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper proposes a strategy for nowcasting tourist overnight stays in Italy by exploiting payment card data and Google Search indices. The strategy is applied to national and regional overnight stays at a time of a significant and unanticipated shock to tourism flows and payment habits (the COVID-19 pandemic). Our results show that indicators based on payment data are very informative for predicting tourist volumes, both at the national and at the regional level. Instead, the predictive power of Google Search data is more limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Crispino & Vincenzo Mariani, 2025. "A Tool to Nowcast Tourist Overnight Stays with Payment Data and Complementary Indicators," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 11(1), pages 285-312, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:italej:v:11:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s40797-024-00266-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40797-024-00266-6
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