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Financial and Econometric Study of the Sustainability and Evaluation of Scenarios of Reforms for the Civil Regime of Moroccan

Author

Listed:
  • Latifa AITOUTOUHEN

    (University Abdel Malek Essâadi, Faculty of Economics, Morocco.)

  • Faris HAMZA

    (University Abdel Malek Essâadi, Polydisciplinary Faculty, Morocco.)

Abstract

The decline in the demographic ratio corollary to the maturity of the regime and in particular its generosity raise the question of the medium-and long-term financial sustainability of the civil pension scheme of the Moroccan pension fund. This article studies the financial sustainability of civil regimes and evaluates the options for reforms envisaged by the government mainly parametric reform. In this framework, an actuarial and financial model based on demographic assumptions and macroeconomic parameters is constructed and used to analyze the financial sustainability of the status quo regime and the projected regime and also to test the parametric reform. We also use econometric tests such as non-stationarity, causality and cointegration between technical recipes and technical expenditures to empirically evaluate the sustainability of civil scheme of pensions. This paper concludes that the parametric reform of our civil pay-as-you-go system is unsustainable. It would therefore be in favor of other remedial measures and reform strategies to improve and enhance the financial sustainability of the fund, such as the model based on the addition of a funded pillar, and unification of all funds in a single integrated system.

Suggested Citation

  • Latifa AITOUTOUHEN & Faris HAMZA, 2016. "Financial and Econometric Study of the Sustainability and Evaluation of Scenarios of Reforms for the Civil Regime of Moroccan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 652-667, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:3:y:2016:i:4:p:652-667
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PAYG; Financial sustainability; Econometric tests; Model actuarial; Parametric reform; Civil pension scheme of the Moroccan pension fund;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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