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Reversibilität und Irreversibilität: Mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus

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  • Herold, Jörg
  • Ahrens, Bernd

Abstract

Genaue Prognosen von Absatzmöglichkeiten und Marktpotenzialen für Innovationen können heute ein entscheidender Faktor sein, um sich auf dem Markt zu behaupten. Zur Sicherung des langfristigen Unternehmenserfolgs sind im Zeitablauf produkt- und sortimentspolitische Entscheidungen zu treffen. Erst im Zeitablauf wird aber sichtbar, ob sie richtig waren. Betriebswirtschaftlich sind solche irreversiblen Prozesse von großer Bedeutung, deren Umkehr nur indirekt erlaubt (dynamische Irreversibilität) oder sogar unmöglich (technische Irreversibilität) ist. Ohne diese Beschränkungen, spricht man von reversiblen Entscheidungen. Die Ausbreitung von Innovationen in der Literatur erklären lineare, exponentielle und logistische Modelle. Zur Bestimmung des Zeitverhaltens werden die Innovationsausbreitungen mathematisch in Hin- und Rückrichtung berechnet und klassifiziert. Die Simulation der Zeitumkehr erfolgt durch Änderung der Vorzeichen für den Innovationskoeffizienten (Antiwerbung) und Imitationskoeffizienten (negative Mundpropaganda) in den Diffusionsgleichungen. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass logistische und exponentielle Diffusionsprozesse dynamisch irreversibel sind. Technische Irreversibilität tritt hingegen nur für logistische Ausbreitungsvorgänge auf.

Suggested Citation

  • Herold, Jörg & Ahrens, Bernd, 2011. "Reversibilität und Irreversibilität: Mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,5, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fhjbwf:20115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katharina Kaps & Silko Pfeil & Thomas Sauer & Matthias-Wolfgang Stoetzer, 2011. "Strategische Ausrichtung und Innovationstätigkeit von KMU im Raum Jena," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(09), pages 40-48, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Watzka, Klaus, 2017. "Die Akkreditierung von Studiengängen in Deutschland: Ein Instrument zur Qualitätssicherung? (Jenaer Erklärung zur Akkreditierung)," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/1, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Millner, Ralf & Stoetzer, Matthias Wolfgang & Fritze, Christina & Günther, Stephanie, 2015. "Fair oder Foul? Punktevergabe und Platzierung beim Eurovision Song Contest," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2015/2, University of Applied Sciences Jena, Department of Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Produktlebenszyklus; Innovationsmanagement; Dynamic;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising

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