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Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area: assessment and role for informing monetary policy

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  • Emil Stavrev

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  • Emil Stavrev, 2010. "Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area: assessment and role for informing monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 217-239, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:217-239
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0263-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
    2. Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    4. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    6. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    8. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    10. Donald Coletti & Benjamin Hunt & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada.
    11. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
    12. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    13. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    14. Hahn, Elke, 2002. "Core inflation in the euro area: An application of the generalized dynamic factor model," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    15. Dr. James Mitchell, 2004. "Density Forecast Combination," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 249, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
    17. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    3. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
    4. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/166, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Underlying inflation; Forecast evaluation; Composite indicators; Forecast risk assessment; C51; C52; C53; E31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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