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Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
[A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]

  • Rapacciuolo, Ciro

The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7714/1/MPRA_paper_7714.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7714.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7714
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  1. Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
  4. Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0053, European Central Bank.
  7. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  10. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. R. Golinelli, 1996. "Modellazione Econometrica per la previsione congiunturale: un esercizio su produzione, prezzi e moneta," Working Papers 246, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  12. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2002. "L'aritmetica del congiunturalista: misure di confronto temporale e loro relazioni
    [Business cycle arithmetic: time variation measures and their relations]
    ," MPRA Paper 7442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0036, European Central Bank.
  14. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation forecasts," Working Paper Series 0151, European Central Bank.
  15. Gavosto Andrea & Sabbatini Roberto, 1997. "Misure di "core inflation"," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 67-86.
  16. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
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