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Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
[A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]

  • Rapacciuolo, Ciro

The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7714/1/MPRA_paper_7714.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7714.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7714
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  1. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
  4. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2002. "L'aritmetica del congiunturalista: misure di confronto temporale e loro relazioni
    [Business cycle arithmetic: time variation measures and their relations]
    ," MPRA Paper 7442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  8. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
  11. Roberto Golinelli, 1996. "Modellazione Econometrica per la previsione congiunturale: un esercizio su produzione, prezzi e moneta," Working Papers 246, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  12. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Gavosto Andrea & Sabbatini Roberto, 1997. "Misure di "core inflation"," Politica economica - Journal of Economic Policy (PEJEP), Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 67-86.
  14. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  16. Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0053, European Central Bank.
  17. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Measuring core inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0036, European Central Bank.
  18. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
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